Axios
Stefanik drops bid for N.Y. gov, retiring from Congress
<p>Rep. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/09/elise-stefanik-fundraising-new-york-governor" target="_blank">Elise Stefanik</a> (R-N.Y.) announced Friday she'd suspended her campaign for New York governor and will not seek reelection to the House next year.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Stefanik, one of <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">President Trump</a>'s most prominent backers on Capitol Hill and a member of House GOP leadership, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/30/stefanik-new-york-governor-2026" target="_blank">just entered the race</a> for governor in November after Trump helped clear the field for her. </p><hr /><ul><li>"While we would have overwhelmingly won this primary, it is not an effective use of our time or your generous resources to spend the first half of next year in an unnecessary and protracted Republican primary, especially in a challenging state like New York," Stefanik wrote in a post <a href="https://x.com/EliseStefanik/status/2002121519342793163?s=20" target="_blank">on X</a>. </li><li>The announcement comes just days after Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman decided to jump into the race.</li><li>Trump and GOP leadership's effort to clear the field for her included convincing Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) not to run.</li></ul><p><strong>Driving the news:</strong> "I did not come to this decision lightly for our family," Stefanik said in her post. </p><ul><li>"I have thought deeply about this and I know that as a mother, I will feel profound regret if I don't further focus on my young son's safety, growth, and happiness," she added. </li></ul><p><strong>Between the lines:</strong> National Republicans <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/30/stefanik-new-york-governor-2026" target="_blank">earlier this year</a> embarked on a polling project aimed at deciding who of the three — Stefanik, Lawler and Blakeman — would be the strongest GOP opponent to incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reported </p><ul><li>Stefanik, who was first elected to Congress in 2015, fared the best.</li></ul><p><strong>The other side:</strong> "Elise Stefanik has finally acknowledged reality: If you run against Governor Kathy Hochul, you are going to lose," Hochul said in a statement Friday.</p><p><strong>What we're hearing</strong>: Republicans see having Blakeman at the top of the ticket as a big boost for New York's third and fourth congressional districts.</p><ul><li>"I expect Republicans to soon coalesce around Bruce Blakeman," Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), who had been neutral in the race up to this point, told Axios.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out</strong>: Trump picked Stefanik to be UN ambassador after winning the presidency last year.</p><ul><li>But he later withdrew the nomination amid concerns that, with House Republicans hanging on to a slim majority, he'd need Stefanik's vote to pass his "big beautiful bill."</li><li>Stefanik has reportedly blamed Speaker <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/us/politics/elise-stefanik-trump-johnson-cabinet.html" target="_blank">Mike Johnson</a> (R-La.) for delaying and ultimately killing her nomination in an effort keep his narrow GOP majority from further dwindling — a claim that Johnson has denied.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/02/mike-johnson-elise-stefanik-feud-ndaa-fbi-probes" target="_blank">tension</a> has spilled into public view in recent weeks, with Stefanik calling Johnson a "political novice" in an interview with <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elise-stefanik-mike-johnson-house-speaker-c41659cb?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc_qVtCLjKTiAGesixJ5n_lnhE66rl5BLqDMeU1wX2aB28r0EBBuKejGPj0ESw%3D&gaa_ts=6945c559&gaa_sig=Ye1P1SIV7vsRusgxI36F5nb3wTfgsn9cH0Hvb8KUiix7DodQ1GL4nmJXkLP7-5oHDCtRRSDqUTcp26sKTI60WA%3D%3D" target="_blank">The Wall Street Journal.</a></li></ul><p><em>Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting. </em></p>
1 month, 2 weeks ago
Axios
U.S. would be "lucky" if Trump serves "even longer," White House says
<p>The White House said the U.S. would be "lucky" to have President <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump</a> remain in office for a longer period, after lawyer <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/boston/2025/08/07/dershowitz-pierogi-gate-feud-with-marthas-vineyard-vendor-escalates" target="_blank">Alan Dershowitz</a> told the Wall Street Journal he shared a draft of his new book exploring the possibility of a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/27/trump-third-term-president-constitution-illegal" target="_blank">third presidential term</a>.</p><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> Trump and his administration have <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/27/trump-third-term-constitution" target="_blank">repeatedly teased</a> a 2028 run, despite the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/03/31/22-amendment-trump-third-term-jd-vance" target="_blank">22nd Amendment</a> barring presidents from being elected to a third term.</p><hr /><p><strong>What they're saying:</strong> "There has never been an Administration that has accomplished as much in less than one year than the Trump Administration," White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a Thursday evening email.</p><ul><li>"The American people would be lucky to have President Trump in office for even longer." </li><li>The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' Wednesday evening request for comment asking if the president is planning to run for another term.</li><li>Dershowitz told WSJ in an interview published Thursday that he advised Trump that "it's not clear if a president can become a third term president and it's not clear if it's permissible,'" though he added: "I don't think he will run for a third term."</li></ul><p><strong>State of play:</strong> Dershowitz's book "Could President Trump Constitutionally Serve a Third Term?," is slated to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Could-President-Trump-Constitutionally-Serve/dp/1510787062" target="_blank">publish</a> next year.</p><ul><li>He previously served as Trump's <a href="https://www.axios.com/2020/01/19/dershowitz-impeachable-offenses-abuse-of-power" target="_blank">defense lawyer</a> during the president's <a href="https://www.axios.com/2019/12/19/trump-impeached-house-of-representatives" target="_blank">first impeachment trial</a> and told the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-told-by-alan-dershowitz-constitutionality-of-third-term-is-unclear-33133eb8" target="_blank">WSJ</a> he informed Trump that the Constitution isn't explicit on the possibility of another term. The president plans to read his draft, he added.</li><li>Trump's chief of staff <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/susie-wiles-vanity-fair-trump-vance-epstein-musk" target="_blank">Susie Wiles</a>, in her Vanity Fair <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/trump-susie-wiles-interview-exclusive-part-1" target="_blank">interview</a>, published Tuesday, dismissed speculation that Trump would defy the 22nd Amendment, though she said he's "having fun" knowing his comments are "driving people crazy."</li><li><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/28/trump-third-term-constitution-mike-johnson" target="_self">House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)</a> said in October he doesn't "see the path" for Trump to pursue a 2028 bid, which prompted the president to acknowledge that "it's pretty clear" he can't be elected again. </li></ul><p><strong>Yes, but:</strong> Trump previously insisted he's "not joking" about a third term and would<a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/27/trump-2028-third-term-jd-vance" target="_blank"> "love" to run</a> for president again.</p><ul><li>His Trump Store even began selling "<a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/04/24/trump-2028-hats-sale-official-store" target="_blank">Trump 2028</a>" hat this year, encouraging supporters to "[m]ake a statement." </li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue:</strong> Dershowitz told the WSJ that one scenario where Trump could be president again could involve the final results potentially being decided upon by Congress. </p><ul><li>Dershowitz theorizes that if Trump were declared the winner of another election, Electoral College members could abstain their vote when they meet to cast their ballots, ultimately leaving the election up to Congress. </li><li>"He found it interesting as an intellectual issue," Dershowitz told WSJ. </li></ul><p><strong>Go deeper:</strong> <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/10/27/trump-third-term-constitution" target="_blank">All the times Trump has promoted 2028 run with merch and rhetoric</a></p>
1 month, 2 weeks ago
Axios
House passes GOP health bill without subsidies
<p>House Republican leaders on Wednesday withstood a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/17/mike-johnson-moderate-republicans-fitzpatrick-health-care-aca" target="_blank">standoff with renegade members</a> over expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and passed a GOP health care bill with conservative priorities that wouldn't renew the aid.</p><p><strong>Why it matters</strong>: The 216-211 vote all but assures that out-of-pocket premiums will more than double on average for roughly 20 million <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/hakeem-jeffries-mike-johnson-republicans-aca" target="_blank">ACA</a> enrollees when the enhanced subsidies expire Jan. 1.</p><hr /><p><strong>Driving the news</strong>: The House bill contains an assortment of GOP-backed measures that Republicans argue will help lower health care costs for a wider swath of Americans than those in the ACA exchanges. </p><ul><li>It would expand association health plans, which allow small businesses to band together and purchase coverage, impose new transparency requirements on pharmacy benefit managers aimed at lowering drug costs, and fund ACA payments known as cost-sharing reductions. </li><li>The Senate, which gridlocked on an ACA subsidy extension and competing GOP plan, isn't expected to take up the House package. But some of the ideas could resurface in late January, when Congress faces another deadline to keep the government funded. </li></ul><p><strong>The intrigue</strong>: A group of House GOP moderates on Tuesday night pushed hard to include an amendment extending the ACA subsidies for at least a year but were rebuffed by House leaders over concerns about the cost.</p><ul><li>Four GOP moderates on Wednesday morning then signed onto to a Democratic discharge petition, providing enough votes to bring up a clean three-year extension. </li><li>That vote may not happen until the new year, despite Democratic calls for immediate action. </li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers</strong>: The GOP bill would increase the uninsured population by 100,000 and save the government $35.6 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. </p><ul><li>The driver is the cost sharing reduction payments to health insurers, which will have the effect of lowering the benchmark ACA insurance premium 11% but also cut the subsidies that some ACA enrollees receive. </li><li>The lower subsidy amounts will cause some<strong> </strong>enrollees to go without coverage, CBO projects.</li></ul><p><strong>What they're saying</strong>: GOP leaders have argued that extending the enhanced ACA subsidies would be wasteful spending that benefits insurance companies. </p><ul><li>Speaker Mike Johnson said a subsidy extension "only hides the true cost of the failed law." </li><li>But moderates facing re-election next year are worried about the political fallout from spiking premiums at a time when affordability is on many consumers' minds. </li></ul><p><strong>The big picture</strong>: The renegade GOP members nonetheless voted for the GOP health bill, saying they didn't object to what's in it. </p><ul><li>Moderate GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley (Calif.) said the bill is "fine" though it is "pretty narrow" and "hastily thrown together."</li><li>"It doesn't actually address the issue that's right in front of us which is that these tax credits are going to go away," he added. </li></ul><p><strong>Go deeper: </strong><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/hakeem-jeffries-mike-johnson-republicans-aca" target="_blank">How Democrats orchestrated a GOP revolt against Mike Johnson</a><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/hakeem-jeffries-mike-johnson-republicans-aca" target="_blank">
</a> </p>
1 month, 2 weeks ago
| 2 sources
Axios
Trump pardoned him days ago. Now he's furious the Democrat is running for reelection.
<p><a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">President Trump</a> blasted Rep. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/03/trump-pardons-henry-cuellar-democrat-texas" target="_blank">Henry Cuellar</a> on Sunday for "a lack of LOYALTY" days after he pardoned the Texas <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/05/06/henry-cuellar-indictment-resign-congress" target="_blank">Democrat</a> in a shock move last week.</p><p><strong>The big picture:</strong> Trump signaled he expects loyalty in return for his pardons and that he's willing to threaten "no more Mr. Nice guy" if he doesn't get it.</p><hr /><p><strong>Driving the news:</strong> Trump<strong> </strong>raged Sunday <a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/115678452939414622" target="_blank">on Truth Social</a> over Cuellar running for reelection as<strong> </strong>a Democrat, hours before Cuellar told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News he's still a Democrat.</p><ul><li>"Such a lack of LOYALTY, something that Texas Voters, and Henry's daughters, will not like," the president wrote.</li><li>Trump re-<a href="https://truthsocial.com/%40realDonaldTrump/posts/115678164034377962" target="_blank">shared</a> a letter from Cuellar's daughters that he said motivated him to pardon the congressman and his wife. They were accused of taking nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijani oil company and a Mexican bank.</li><li>Trump wrote that "God was very happy with me" over the pardon.</li></ul><p><strong>What's inside: </strong>In the letter posted by the president, Cuellar's daughters argued their father's "independence and honesty may have contributed to how this case began," citing his criticism of the Biden administration's border policies.</p><ul><li>In pardoning Cuellar, Trump claimed the congressman was prosecuted because he "bravely spoke out against ... the Biden Border 'Catastrophe.'" </li></ul><p><strong>Catch up quick: </strong>The DOJ alleged in an indictment last year that<strong> </strong>Cuellar and his wife engaged in bribery and money laundering schemes to influence U.S. policy in favor of Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank.</p><p><strong>What he's saying:</strong> "I don't vote party," Cuellar told Fox News. "I vote for what's right for the country."</p><ul><li>He said he remains a "conservative Democrat" who will work with the administration.</li></ul><p><strong>Yes, but: </strong>The president signaled Cuellar wouldn't get such a friendly reception from the Oval Office for "continuing to work with the same Radical Left Scum that just weeks before wanted him and his wife to spend the rest of their lives in Prison."</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/02/white-house-loyalty-trump" target="_blank">Loyalty is a key word</a> — and quality — in Trump's White House. Trump has taken a transactional approach to leadership, and it seems he's dissatisfied with Cuellar's response.</li></ul><p><strong>Friction point: </strong>The pardon could be a roadblock for Republicans seeking to flip Cuellar's South Texas seat.</p><ul><li>House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Axios' Kate Santaliz and Hans Nichols even he <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/03/mike-ohnson-blindsided-by-trumps-cuellar-pardon" target="_blank">knew nothing</a> about the clemency action before it was announced but that it shouldn't be a "huge surprise."</li><li>Trump <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/05/06/trump-house-gop-cuellar-resign" target="_blank">criticized</a> the indictment when it happened, calling Cuellar a "Respected Democrat Congressman."</li></ul><p><strong>Go deeper: </strong><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/05/maga-loyalty-test-hill-leaders" target="_blank">MAGA loyalty test</a></p><img src="https://images.axios.com/MOgGW4ktStcv6cogX8qGJczYC9s=/2025/12/07/1765129378218.png" /> <div>Screenshot: @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social</div>
1 month, 4 weeks ago
The Hill
Anxious GOP lawmakers say Johnson is safe as Speaker despite frustrations
House Republicans say Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is safe in his position for now, even as frustrated members across the spectrum lob verbal missiles and threaten his control of the House floor. Republicans have increasingly criticized Johnson’s strategic calls, voiced irritations with his tactics and pushed him to bend to their will. If anything, the...
2 months ago
The Hill
Speaker Johnson swears in Matt Van Epps after Tennessee special election
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) swore in Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-Tenn.) on Thursday morning, less than two days after Van Epps won an unexpectedly competitive special election to fill a vacant House seat. Van Epps, an Army veteran, will succeed former Rep. Mark Green (R), who resigned in July for a private sector opportunity. He...
2 months ago
Axios
Behind the Curtain: Volatility vortex
<p><a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Every president</a> back to Bill Clinton enjoyed full party control of Congress and fantasized about lasting, durable governing dominance.</p><ul><li><strong>Every president</strong> back to Bill Clinton <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Party-Government/" target="_blank">lost it</a> within <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm" target="_blank">two years</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Nothing captures the volatility of American politics better than this win-big, lose-quick phenomenon. It's like a new law of political gravity: What the swing voter giveth, the swing voter abruptly taketh away.</p><ul><li>President Trump would need to defy gravity to avoid the same fate that hit him during his first term … and hit Joe Biden … and Barack Obama … and George W. Bush … and Clinton.</li></ul><hr /><p><strong>The big picture: </strong>We've been telling readers for a decade to expect <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/09/15/charlie-kirk-political-violence-trends" target="_blank">whiplash political volatility</a> for the foreseeable future. This makes business planning more difficult because the regulatory, political and economic policy environments shift so quickly and dramatically.</p><p><strong>Both parties are prisoners</strong> to three stubborn political dynamics and realities:</p><ol><li><strong>America is roughly a 33-33-33 nation.</strong> Roughly a third of voters are die-hard Democrats, and another third are die-hard Republicans. The other third (or slightly more) are perpetually open-minded and persistently dissatisfied with the new party in power. This dynamic has held firm for most of the past 30 years and shows no obvious signs of shifting. <a href="https://brucemehlman.substack.com/p/the-morning-after" target="_blank">Almost every election</a> since Clinton has flipped control of the White House or Congress.</li><li><strong>The number of truly competitive House races</strong> is shockingly small — roughly 10% of the 435 House seats, give or take. You can thank redistricting at the state level for meticulously chopping the nation into safe havens for very partisan Republicans or Democrats. That means the most important races are often primaries, where voter turnout is low and dominated by activists. Hence, the dominance of hyperpartisans.</li><li><strong>Big new policies</strong> take years to work their way into Americans' actual lives. Trump's tax cut bill, or Biden's infrastructure and green energy laws, or Obamacare were all substantial wins for the party in power. But any benefits usually take longer for voters to feel than the time left in a two-year election cycle.</li></ol><p><strong>So, like clockwork, </strong>a new party wins power, feels invincible, believes it'll defy gravity, obsesses about those hyperpartisans who vote in primaries — and ticks off both swing voters and the activists on the other side. And then loses again.</p><p><strong>What we're watching: </strong>The American electorate is so volatile that there are now scenarios in which the GOP could lose its House majority even before next year's midterms.</p><ul><li>Axios <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/25/congress-retirements-mtg-threats-censures-trump" target="_blank">told you</a> last week that rising <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/us/politics/kirk-republicans-democrats-congress-threats.html" target="_blank">security fears</a>, and even death threats, — along with <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/29/maga-civil-war-feud-trump-holidays" target="_blank">MAGA infighting</a> — are fueling the once-unthinkable conversation among House Republicans about quitting Congress early.</li><li><strong>"It's no longer </strong>an exaggeration to say that House Republicans could lose their majority during this Congress" if Speaker Mike Johnson loses another House Republican to resignation, death or illness, Punchbowl <a href="https://punchbowl.news/archive/1212025-am/" target="_blank">notes</a>. "Whether Republicans agree or not, their majority is slipping away."</li></ul><p><strong>In a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/699221/trump-approval-rating-drops-new-second-term-low.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup poll</a> </strong>out Friday, Republican approval of Congress (controlled by, um, Republicans) is an atrocious 23% — halved from a pre-shutdown 54% in September, and down from 63% in March.</p><img src="https://images.axios.com/KpZO--a-4p7S1oXoOeHEZbUQNVo=/2025/11/23/1763936886658.jpg" /> <div>Image: Bruce Mehlman's "Six-Chart Sunday"</div><p><strong>Watch that pendulum:</strong> This thought-provoking graphic — part of the <a href="https://brucemehlman.substack.com/p/six-chart-sunday-100-how-to-navigate" target="_blank">100th issue</a> of strategist <a href="https://x.com/bpmehlman" target="_blank">Bruce Mehlman's</a> always-useful "<a href="https://brucemehlman.substack.com/" target="_blank">Six-Chart Sunday</a>" — reminds America's powerful that they and their ideas could be on the outs soon enough.</p><ul><li>"In politics and life," Mehlman writes, "playing the long game means minding your reputation for honesty & reliability, dealing squarely with a wide array of stakeholders, doing unto others as you'd have done to you and critically, remaining bipartisan … because <em><strong>the pendulum always swings back."</strong></em></li><li>Mehlman reminds us that so far this century, <a href="https://brucemehlman.substack.com/p/the-morning-after" target="_blank">11 of 13 U.S. elections</a> were "change elections," in which voters tossed out the party controlling the House, Senate or White House — a volatility streak unseen <a href="https://brucemehlman.substack.com/p/six-chart-sunday-43-the-new-gilded" target="_blank">since the late 1800s</a>, during the <a href="https://www.history.com/articles/gilded-age" target="_blank">Gilded Age</a>. "Demand for change is strongest from the out party and its activists — the so-called '<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/degrees-of-democracy/thermostatic-model/C43A76060FE186333B6237D90E0D6E04" target="_blank">thermostatic</a>' effect," Mehlman told us.</li></ul><p><strong>Flashback: </strong>In a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/02/02/trump-payback-democrats-executive-orders" target="_blank">column</a> back in February, we reminded Republicans of the "payback precedent": "Copy the payback, punishments and precedent-shattering techniques practiced by the other party —<em> if</em> they prove effective. ... Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all [President Trump's] norm-busting moves."</p><ul><li>And back in June, Zachary Basu helped us chart the 10 "<a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/28/trump-precedents-executive-power" target="_blank">unprecedented new precedents</a>" for presidential power that House and Senate Republicans have enabled.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line: </strong>Trump might be different. But that's what first-term Trump — and Biden, Obama, Bush and Clinton — all thought, too.</p><ul><li><em>Go deeper ... <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/republicans-trump-maga-2026-recent-polls" target="_blank">Behind the Curtain: Big red alert</a>.</em></li></ul>
2 months ago